Humanitarian Response Plan for Pakistan 2010

30 November 2009

The Pakistan Humanitarian Response Plan (PHRP) 2010 aims to provide a consolidated, coherent, transparent and coordinated response of the humanitarian community to the unmet needs of the vulnerable populations affected by the crisis in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan.  The PHRP 2010 is based upon a set of specific and defined planning assumptions and beneficiary projections and includes project proposals that are in line with international humanitarian principles.  The plan draws largely from the humanitarian response experience of 2008 and 2009, and projects into the future based upon the best available humanitarian information at the time of planning. 

The planning assumptions are based upon a broad set of consultations with humanitarian actors, government counterparts and academics.  Three possible scenarios for the humanitarian situation over the course of 2010 were developed: one scenario projects the best case; one the most likely; and one the worst-case.  In undertaking the planning of the PHRP 2010, the most likely scenario has been used as guidance.

The beneficiary projections are also based on a broad consultation with humanitarian actors, government counterparts and civil society organisations.  The beneficiary projections are built on the basis of population statistics of the original population of different districts and other administrative units; the verified populations of IDPs emerging from affected areas; the reported populations of returnees; and the vulnerability of the populations that never left their habitual areas. 

These planning assumptions and beneficiary projections are subject to change as reality emerges in the course of 2010.  As part of the humanitarian response in 2010, the humanitarian community will be undertaking vulnerability assessments in all areas of return as they become accessible, starting with the Malakand Division, extending to both Bajaur and Mohmand Agencies, and eventually to the South Waziristan Agency and other Agencies as the need may be.  The beneficiary projections will be adjusted on the basis of these vulnerability assessments.  Similarly, the number of IDPs in need of direct relief will be adjusted through regular field assessments and reviews in the course of 2010 to adjust the humanitarian response to the actual needs on the ground.  These regular reviews and the consequent adjustments in the Pakistan Humanitarian Response Plan will be similar to those reviews that have taken place between August 2008 and October 2009 with respect to the ongoing humanitarian crisis.  At the minimum, there will be a mid-year review in June 2010, but an earlier review could take place if the humanitarian situation of the affected population improves, deteriorates or otherwise changes significantly before that.

Key considerations in the preparation of the PHRP 2010 include distinction between ‘Relief’ and ‘Early Recovery’ related humanitarian activities; mandatory prior approval of all ‘Relief’ related projects by the Provincial Relief, Rehabilitation and Settlement Authority (PaRRSA); while for the ‘Early Recovery’ related projects, by the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA)/PaRRSA or the Cluster Lead Agency counter part co-chair of the Government system authorized by PaRRSA; opening of an ‘assignment account’ in the National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) for each project in which a Government Agency is the implementing partner; Procurement of the goods and services under the 2010 PHRP shall be done through open bidding (widely circulated in the press under intimation to PaRSSA) in a transparent and open manner to ensure fair price; strengthening the emphasis on implementation using the now well-established structure of cluster coordination to ensure that assistance reaches all vulnerable population as early as possible; joint monitoring of each project by the Cluster Lead and the Executive District Officer (EDO) concerned or the provincial Government Department/ FATA Secretariat/ Agency; and final evaluation by the Provincial Government.  Federal Government level oversight body will monitor and guide the management of PHRP 2010. 

This plan is in response to the humanitarian and early recovery needs resulting from the displacement crisis in NWFP and FATA.  It is noted that there are other humanitarian needs that the international community is called to assist within Pakistan, in particular for the benefit of the Afghan refugee population in Pakistan, which is currently at 1.7 million individuals.  These needs are not covered by the PHRP, which focuses on the affected population in NWFP and FATA.

Most likely scenario
There will be a lack of a comprehensive peace in NWFP/FATA.  Humanitarian, recovery and development activities in an insecure environment will characterize the working context for humanitarian workers in 2010.  Limitations to humanitarian access will be a direct result of these circumstances, particularly in parts of the Malakand Division and most of FATA.  Displacement and return patterns will fluctuate in those areas.  Revenge actions by militants in cities of Pakistan will disrupt the working environment for the humanitarian community.  Sectarian violence in some Districts and Agencies will be a factor contributing to instability.

Core elements
• Continued displacement of a number of existing IDPs from Bajaur and Mohmand (FATA) and the Malakand Division (NWFP).
• New displacement of IDPs from South and North Waziristan (FATA) and other tribal areas.
• 10% of existing and 20% of the new IDP caseloads staying in camps, the rest with hosting families.
• Caseloads of IDPs, host families, returnees and those remaining in areas of origin will be cyclic and not in need of assistance at the same time.  Therefore, their numbers should not be taken cumulatively: IDPs become returnees; those remaining in areas of origin may become IDPs.
• Continued insecurity will affect livelihoods, infrastructure and limit humanitarian access.

Potential Triggers
• Generalized insecurity and threats from militants against governmental institutions, civilians, and humanitarian agencies.
• Security services operations against militants.

Affected Groups (these are peak numbers; actual figures will vary up to these estimates through the 12 months of 2010)

• 800,000 IDPs, including:
• 400,000 remaining IDPs (40,000 in camps, 360,000 with host families) from Malakand, Bajaur and Mohmand.
• 250,000 IDPs (50,000 in camps, 200,000 out of camps) from South Waziristan.
• 150,000 new IDPs from other tribal areas.

Other affected groups
Host communities, returnees and individuals that never left their areas of habitual residence will be affected to varied extents and assisted mainly in terms of services and not individually or as families (for example, health and education are services that need improvement after the conclusion of security services operations, regardless of whether an individual became an IDP or not).  This is particularly true for a few months after return has taken place in order to ensure its sustainability.  IDPs from South Waziristan in Balochistan may be in need of assistance.  Individual support in the form of food and non-food items (NFIs), agricultural inputs, etc will also be provided where needed in the areas of origin.  Assistance to the affected population in areas of origin or return will be provided based on vulnerability criteria, which are currently being developed by the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT).  Detailed data from vulnerability assessments is expected to be available in early 2010.  This will enable the humanitarian community to refine its response.

 
Effect on Humanitarian Operations and Response Environment
• Increased humanitarian needs in different parts of NWFP and FATA
• Humanitarian agencies operating under considerable strain due to security concerns and need to constantly prioritise humanitarian assistance in areas of new displacement and return and in accordance with fluctuating conditions and needs
• Access limitations for humanitarian workers
• Difficulties for vulnerable populations to access humanitarian assistance

Affected areas
• Humanitarian needs requiring life-saving activities, ensuring a protective environment and access to rights and services are expected in most of NWFP and FATA, particularly in:
• NWFP: Malakand, Swat, Buner, Lower and Upper Dir, Shangla (areas of return), Mardan, Swabi, Nowshera, Charsadda, Peshawar, DI Khan, Tank, Bannu, Kohat, Hangu (areas of displacement)
• FATA: Bajaur, Mohmand, South and North Waziristan, Khyber, Kurram, and Orakzai Agencies (areas of origin/return)
• Balouchistan: Zhob (area of transit and possibly receiving IDPs)
• Early recovery and livelihood rebuilding needs are expected in areas of return of NWFP and FATA

The 2010 Pakistan Humanitarian Response Plan for the IDPs in NWFP and FATA
The humanitarian community has had extensive planning sessions and consultations with the Government of Pakistan, at the provincial (NWFP government and FATA Secretariat) and federal levels.  Since the end of August 2009, consultations with a variety of actors led to the development of planning assumptions.  A planning workshop was held on 15-16 September 2009, in Islamabad with the participation of 11 UN agencies and 43 NGOs.  At the end of the workshop, government counterparts and donors were briefed of the planning assumptions and the outcome of the workshop.  In the following two months detailed planning took place within the clusters where the provincial government is represented.

The clusters prepared their plans and projects based on estimated needs for 12 months.  In the absence of comprehensive assessment data, the proposed projects were largely based on information available from small-scale reports, knowledge of the situation on the ground and the scenarios developed earlier.  Given access restrictions and security concerns, it is particularly difficult to assess humanitarian needs in insecure areas (particularly in FATA), and humanitarian staff faces difficulties with sustained access to areas receiving IDPs from Waziristan. 

As a result, a lot of information on needs is anecdotal and hard to corroborate and substantiate, meaning the humanitarian community has developed parts of the PHRP 2010 based on informed estimates, projections and scenarios.  Priorities were set based on various criteria, including time-sensitivity and criticality of the activity, as well as available access.  In accordance with the standard guidelines for the development of humanitarian appeals, the estimated needs and the proposed projects cover a full year.

The total funding requirements of this appeal are based on the immediate priority requirements.  These requirements come to a total of US$ 537,793,909.   A Mid-Year Review, planned for June 2010, will provide the opportunity to refine and adjust these requirements.  The humanitarian situation in the country and the resulting needs at that time will dictate the revision upwards or downwards of the requirements for the balance of 2010.

The needs by cluster are listed in the table below.  The immediate funding requirements cover the first six months of the year, allowing time after the mid-year review in June 2010 to adjust needs and proposed projects before funding runs out and without running the risk of provision pipeline breaks.

Cluster Immediate Priority Requirements ($)
Agriculture 24,794,065
Camp Coordination and Camp Management 8,438,440
Community Restoration 45,645,113
Coordination 9,623,848
Education 22,118,026
Food Assistance 194,718,468
Health 73,470,100
Logistics 2,500,000
Nutrition 17,248,004
Protection 22,629,042
Shelter and Non-Food Items 80,209,569
Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) 36,399,234
Total 537,793,909

As an indication of possible funding requirements needed later in 2010 to cover the needs of the vulnerable populations for the balance of 2010, the indicative needs for the rest of the year come to a total of $254,189,752.  These needs are shown in the table below but will only become confirmed after the Mid-Year Review in June 2010.

Cluster Indicative Needs ($)
Agriculture 9,398,951
Camp Coordination and Camp Management 11,199,453
Community Restoration 16,117,931
Coordination 3,651,560
Education 13,965,722
Food Assistance 80,957,673
Health 18,402,319
Logistics 1,700,000
Nutrition 9,964,714
Protection 20,525,986
Shelter and Non-Food Items 53,974,062
Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) 14,331,381
Total 254,189,752

Appealing organizations participating in the PHRP 2010 include 13 UN Agencies, 33 international and 22 national NGOs, presenting 169 projects to cover the unmet humanitarian needs in NWFP and FATA.  Activities by cluster include: The setting up, maintenance and closure of camps; health care services and rehabilitation; Disease Early Warning Systems; seed inputs and livestock provision; school repairs; food assistance; protection monitoring; shelter provision; solid waste management; hygiene promotion; and coordination and information management services.

The vulnerability assessment planned for early 2010 in the Malakand Division is expected to provide data on specific needs of returnee populations and groups that never left their areas of origin in Malakand Division.  The humanitarian community, in its support for durable solutions to vulnerable returnees, will then look at these needs as they emerge for all populations.  Hence, shifting the humanitarian response towards a needs-based response rather than a response based on status (e.g. IDP, returnee, stayee [a person who never left his/her place of habitual residence]).  Similar vulnerability assessments will be undertaken in FATA as access becomes possible.

In the complex operating environment of NWFP and FATA, the humanitarian community has to be prepared to respond to an ever-changing environment, be flexible, adapt to the circumstances and be inventive in its responses, while constantly reviewing the appropriateness of its activities.

Document History

30 November 2009

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