El Niño in West and Central Africa

Regional Experts have confirmed that unusual high surface temperatures at the end of 2015 and in January 2016, above the annual increase, are an indication that El Niño could have possibly impacted West and Central Africa (particularly in Chad, Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of the Congo) from September 2015 to March, 2016. However, since January, 2016, a decrease in ENSO intensity was noted. Most model outputs and expert assessments suggest a persistence of this decreasing trend leading to ENSO neutral conditions by May or June, 2016.

Predictions - June to September 2016 for West and Central Africa:

  • Below average precipitation is very likely from July to September 2016 over the west part of Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, southern Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo Benin and Nigeria, southeastern CAR, Sudan, northern DRC, Uganda and most of South Sudan and Ethiopia.
  • Near to below average precipitation is very likely over the most of the coastal part of Mauritania, Senegal, Gambian and Guinea Bissau, the Gulf of Guinea from Sierra Leone to Nigeria during June to August period.
  • Over the northern Guinea, central Sahel region, near to above average precipitation is very likely from June to September 2016.
  • Near to above average temperature is very likely over most part of northern Africa, the Sahel region and southern Africa from June to September, 2016.
  • Above average temperature is very likely during June to September 2016 over Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, northern Libya, northern and eastern Egypt, northernmost Mauritania and Mali.