Anticipatory action

Women collecting water from a well in Niger

Women collecting water in the garden of Goubey, Dosso region, Niger on May 15, 2023. Implemented by the NGO Garkua and funded by WFP, the Anticipatory Action project aims to reinforce communities food security in response to the risk of drought. OCHA

OCHA facilitates collective anticipatory action

Today, we can predict with increasing confidence the occurrence and humanitarian impact of certain shocks. By combining different analytical approaches, out-of-the-ordinary events cannot only be predicted, but their projected humanitarian impact can be proactively mitigated based on pre-identified anticipatory actions.

Anticipatory action is now commonly defined as acting ahead of predicted hazards to prevent or reduce acute humanitarian impacts before they fully unfold. Anticipatory action works best if activities (the delivery), as well as triggers and decision-making rules (the model) are pre-agreed to guarantee the fast release of pre-arranged financing (the money). By using early warning systems and scientific advances in predicting disasters, anticipatory action maximizes the window of opportunity between the moment of prediction and the arrival of a forecasted shock to trigger interventions that prevent or mitigate imminent humanitarian impacts. This calls for more humanitarian action linked to risk and vulnerability, instead of a singular focus on needs and suffering.

There is growing evidence that acting prior to the onset of a predictable shock is significantly faster, dignified and more (cost-)effective humanitarian response.

Women carrying bunches of dry papyrus reeds on their heads walks past a dyke made of soil.

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Following several years of piloting, OCHA is mainstreaming and scaling-up anticipatory action. In its 2023-2026 Strategic Plan, OCHA commits to “support and facilitate a systemic shift to coherent and embedded anticipatory approaches, including anticipatory action. OCHA will use its own financing tools to facilitate, generate evidence for and scale up collective anticipatory action.”

OCHA implements this strategy – inter alia – by facilitating coordinated, collective anticipatory action frameworks.

Each framework comprises the three core elements:

A forecast-based trigger embedded in a clear decision-making process (the model)
Pre-agreed action plans that can mitigate the impact of the emergency and the need for humanitarian relief (the delivery)
Pre-arranged finance (the money)

Collective, anticipatory action is still an innovative space. Thus, in addition to the three core elements, OCHA also invests in documenting evidence and learning from each framework underpinned by a clear learning, monitoring and evaluation plan.

OCHA-facilitated anticipatory action portfolio

A global map showing locations of anticipatory action projects.

Learning, monitoring and evaluation plan

Each framework is evaluated to assess if 1) collective anticipatory humanitarian action at scale works, and whether the anticipatory approach leads to a 2) faster, 3) more (cost-)effective and 4) more dignified response.

Learning is organized loosely along three buckets adapted to each pilot as relevant.

Process learning

Capture qualitative data on the benefits of setting up the pilot, as well as how the process supports high-quality anticipatory action frameworks and effective implementation.

Independent evaluation

Independent evaluations may include:

A quantitative evaluation of the impact of anticipatory action on household welfare
A qualitative evaluation to assess beneficiary experience
Forecast/trigger evaluation to assess the performance of the predictive model and ways to improve

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E)

Coordinated, agency-specific M&E to collect and track data on implementation progress and outputs achieved with some common, coordinated questions and indicators on timing, output, reach and challenges.