Anticipatory action

Women collecting water from a well in Niger
Women collecting water in the garden of Goubey, Dosso region, Niger on May 15, 2023. Implemented by the NGO Garkua and funded by WFP, the anticipatory action project aims to reinforce communities’ food security in response to the risk of drought. Photo: OCHA

Every year, millions of people face the reality of increasingly intense and frequent climate-related disasters, such as floods, storms, droughts and other extreme weather, killing loved ones and destroying livelihoods. Since 2000, the escalating climate crisis has also meant an eightfold increase in funding requirements for United Nations humanitarian appeals linked to extreme weather.  

Today, we can predict with increasing confidence the occurrence and humanitarian impact of some of these shocks, such as droughts, floods, or storms, but also some disease outbreaks.  

Taking actions based on such predictions to support vulnerable communities facing disasters aims to prevent and mitigate the effects of shocks through fast, dignified and cost-effective action that can also protect development gains.

What is anticipatory action?

Anticipatory action is acting ahead of predicted hazards to prevent or reduce acute humanitarian impacts before they fully unfold. Effective implementation of anticipatory action ideally requires three elements: 

Pre-agreed trigger: This consists of thresholds and decision-making rules based on reliable, timely and measurable forecasts. 

Pre-agreed activities: This consists of accountable, feasible, effective and efficient actions to be implemented to support vulnerable communities in the window of opportunity between the trigger moment and the full impact of a shock.  

Pre-arranged financing: This consists of funding that is guaranteed and available to be released based on the pre-agreed trigger towards the pre-agreed activities.  

OCHA underpins this approach, with a learning component to iteratively improve anticipatory action over time, but also to provide a growing evidence base that receiving assistance earlier results in significant improvements of the wellbeing of the people impacted by disasters.  

OCHA is committed to use its financing tools to facilitate, generate evidence for and scale up collective anticipatory action. 

OCHA supports scaling up of anticipatory action primarily through the roll-out of coordinated anticipatory action frameworks which combine pre-agreed triggers, pre-agreed activities and pre-arranged financing. The below map provides a global overview of past, ongoing and developing anticipatory action frameworks. Each OCHA-facilitated anticipatory action framework is typically endorsed for a period of 2 years, after which they may be revised or extended if necessary. 

A global map showing locations of anticipatory action projects.

Growing evidence suggests that acting ahead of a shock has significant impact on people’s wellbeing and supports the premise of anticipatory action being fast, dignified and cost-effective action that can also protect development gain.  

Collective, anticipatory approaches are still an innovative space that must be guided by iterative improvements. Thus, in addition to the three core elements, OCHA also invests in documenting evidence and learning from each framework underpinned by a clear learning, monitoring and evaluation plan. 

OCHA’s Anticipatory Action learning framework includes three main learning elements:  

Independent evaluation, for instance through 

  • A quantitative evaluation of the impact of anticipatory action on household welfare; 
  • A qualitative evaluation to assess beneficiary experience; and 
  • Forecast/trigger evaluation to assess the performance of the predictive model and ways to improve.  

Process learning: Capture qualitative data on the benefits of setting up the pilot, as well as how the process supports high-quality anticipatory action frameworks and effective implementation. 

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E): Coordinated, agency-specific M&E to collect and track data on implementation progress and outputs achieved with some common, coordinated questions and indicators on timing, output, reach and challenges. 

Key resources

Anticipatory action: Lessons for the future, Frontiers in Climate, 2022

Centre for Disaster Protection: Five lessons on collective approaches to anticipatory action

OCHA Anticipatory Action Toolkit

A risk-informed Humanitarian Programme Cycle involves applying a 'risk lens' through all phases of the cycle: analysis, planning, implementation and monitoring. This includes the identification, prioritisation, monitoring and planning for the mitigation of risks based on their probability and expected humanitarian impact. 

The Humanitarian Programme Cycle’s approach to risk-informed planning integrates high-impact and highly probable risks directly into humanitarian response planning. In contrast, lower probability or less predictable risks might be managed through separate contingency or preparedness plans. A combination of response preparedness/readiness, anticipatory action, and rapid response planning can typically be considered ways to mitigate the impact of priority risks. 

Mainstreaming anticipatory action within the Humanitarian Programme Cycle is, therefore, one of the methods envisioned to implement risk impact mitigation for high-impact and highly probable risks within the Humanitarian Programme Cycle’s main planning document/instrument – the Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan. Anticipatory action is specifically tailored for predictable hazards, often climate hazards, enabling predefined triggers for rapid response before these risks materialize. Implementing anticipatory action requires well-established readiness and often involves agreements in advance about who will perform specific activities, where, for whom, and with what funding. 

OCHA has been working with a wide range of partners to develop and implement anticipatory action frameworks.

Activities under OCHA-facilitated frameworks are implemented through continued partnership between OCHA and various national governments, UN agencies, the Red Cross family and international and national NGOs. Additionally, the collective anticipatory action approach is used to pool resources from multiple donors and partners to achieve greater scale and impact in implementation. To do this, OCHA brings together the OCHA-managed pooled funds, donors, International Financial Institutions and other anticipatory action focused funds. As a majority of anticipatory action frameworks address climate-related shocks, OCHA works closely with climate actors to enable anticipatory assistance that contributes to longer-term climate outcomes and to facilitate effective use of climate financing for reducing humanitarian impact and OCHA is committed to generating rigorous evidence on anticipatory action, and understanding what works, when and how.  Strong partnerships with academic and research institutions have helped OCHA integrate robust learning and evaluation approaches into the anticipatory action frameworks. 

A snapshot of our partners at the global level can be found below. Detailed country-level partners can be found under individual frameworks. 

  1. OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data 
  2. Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN  
  3. Early Warnings for All 
  4. Harvard Humanitarian Initiative  
  5. University of Oxford 
  6. Risk Informed Early Action Partnership 
  7. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies  
  8. Save the Children International 
  9. Tufts University 
  10. UNICEF 
  11. World Food Programme

OCHA would like to thank the following donors for their generous support to advance the work on anticipatory action:

  • Australia
  • Germany
  • United Kingdom
  • United States of America

The delivery and scaling up of anticipatory action for people at risk of imminent shocks has been made possible by donors who have continuously supported OCHA-managed Pooled Funds 

General 

Anticipatory Action: An innovative tool at the intersection of disaster risk reduction and humanitarian response

Nepal, South Sudan and Niger Story: Anticipatory action by UN Humanitarian - Exposure

Anticipatory insurance with African Risk Capacity: A holistic benefit-cost analysis

Casement lecture update (2019)

Casement lecture (2018)

Central Emergency Response Fund

CERF & Anticipatory Action (Nov 2021)

Centre for Humanitarian Data

Anticipation Hub

Anticipatory Action Task Force

Anticipatory Action Task Force key policy asks

AA Sahel pilots overview 2022

 
Bangladesh

Anticipatory Action Framework: Bangladesh Cyclones - 2023 

Anticipatory Action Framework: Bangladesh Floods – 2023

Summary: Bangladesh 2023 Anticipatory Action Framework – Storms

Bangladesh Floods Framework Activation – 2024

News item: UN agencies provide $6.2m to vulnerable communities as anticipatory action (July 2024)

Bangladesh 2020 Anticipatory Action Framework

Summary: Bangladesh 2020 Anticipatory Action Framework – Floods

Impact - Bangladesh 2020 anticipatory action activation

Bangladesh 2021 Anticipatory Action Framework

 

Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso Anticipatory Action Framework

Summary: Burkina Faso Anticipatory Action Framework

Model Report: Drought Anticipatory Action Trigger

 

Chad

Chad Anticipatory Action Framework for drought

Chad Anticipatory Action Framework – Floods in Chad

 
Democratic Republic of the Congo

Summary: DRC Anticipatory Action Framework

DRC Cholera AA Framework

Context study: Vulnerability, secondary benefits and ethics of anticipatory action for cholera in the eastern DR Congo

Press Release July 2023: CERF allocates $750,000 for anticipatory action against cholera in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Press Release January 2023: Allocation de 750 000 dollars US pour prévenir le choléra en République Democratique du Congo

 

Ethiopia

Acting early in Ethiopia when the world isn’t watching

Ethiopia Anticipatory Action Framework

Summary: Ethiopia Anticipatory Action Framework

Predicting Drought-Related Food Insecurity

Trigger evaluation: Report by Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (Apr 2021)

Process learning: Final report (PowerPoint form)

Impact - CERF Report on Anticipatory action against drought 2021

Blog article: Listening to those in crisis: understanding perspectives on anticipatory action in Ethiopia

Ethiopia survey report by 60 Decibels

 
Fiji

Fiji: Anticipatory Action

WFP Case Study on AA and Social Protection systems: Supercharging social protection systems with anticipatory cash: Case study on Fiji’s Anticipatory Action Framework (April 2024)

Press release: United Nations and Government of Fiji Launch ground-breaking Anticipatory Action Framework for tropical cyclones

UN – Fiji Government Joint Press Release: Fiji endorses the Pacific’s first Anticipatory Action Framework for Tropical Cyclones

WFP Case-study: Supercharging social protection systems

Anticipatory Action Framework: Fiji Cyclones - 2023 

 
Haiti

Haiti Anticipatory Action framework

 

Malawi

Summary:  Malawi Anticipatory Action Framework

Malawi Anticipatory Action Framework

Dry spells trigger: Lessons learned

Process learning on trigger development

Trigger Quality Assurance Review

Household Survey for AA Malawi

 

Nepal

Nepal Anticipatory Action framework for floods: 2024

Press release: Activation of Anticipatory Action Framework for Koshi River Basin Communities Amidst Heavy Floods (2024)

2023 Addendum to the 2022 Anticipatory Action Framework for Floods in Nepal

WFP: Joint Post-Distribution Monitoring (PDM) of Forecast-based Anticipatory Action Project (FbAA) –2022

Monitoring report: Nepal anticipatory action 2022

Summary: Nepal 2022 Anticipatory Action Framework

Nepal Anticipatory Action Framework: 2021

UNRCO Community Perception Report

Press Release: UN Emergency Fund assists communities in Nepal before peak monsoon floods [EN/NE]

 

Niger

Niger Anticipatory Action Framework

Qualitative evaluation of the Anticipatory Action pilot in Niger (drought 2022-2023)

Summary: Niger Anticipatory Action Framework

Press Release: The Government of Niger and Humanitarian partners launch an anticipatory action for communities affected by drought, providing assistance to prevent humanitarian suffering

Press Release: Government and humanitarian community in Niger launch anticipatory action for drought-affected communities to prevent humanitarian suffering

Model Report: Drought Anticipatory Action Trigger

Impact story: Breaking the cycle of negative coping strategies - Lessons from anticipatory action in Niger 2022

 

The Philippines

Anticipatory Action Framework Philippines 2024

Philippines Anticipatory Action Framework

Summary: Philippines Anticipatory Action Framework

Philippines Anticipatory Action Framework, 2023 Revision

Summary: Philippines Anticipatory Action Framework (2023 Update)

Philippines: Anticipatory Action Cash Based Intervention Snapshot (As of 03 October 2023) 

Philippines CERF Anticipatory Action Cash Based Intervention Snapshot (As of 12 Sept 2022)

Philippines: AA flow of information snapshot

Philippines: CERF AA Pilot Pre-Crisis Survey (PCS) Final Report, August 2022

CERF Anticipatory Action Simulation Exercise Report

2022 After Action Review on the CERF Anticipatory Action for Typhoons

Model Report: Typhoon impact model

 

Somalia

Somalia Anticipatory Action Framework

Summary: Somalia Anticipatory Action Framework

Somalia 2020 Learning

Somalia 2021 Learning

 

South Sudan

Impacts of early action support on lives and livelihoods in South Sudan: The Life in Bentiu Study

Press Release: UN Releases $19m to Help People in South Sudan Prepare for Severe Flooding

Analysis: Flood Risk for South Sudan’s 2022 Rainy Season

CERF Early Action Implementation Monitoring Dashboard 

Lessons from the 2022 South Sudan floods on acting ahead

 

Central America

Anticipatory Action - Dry Corridor: El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua

Anticipatory Action Framework Dry Corridor El Salvador

Anticipatory Action Framework Dry Corridor Guatemala

Anticipatory Action Framework Dry Corridor Honduras

Anticipatory Action Framework Dry Corridor Nicaragua