Anticipatory action
Every year, millions of people face the reality of increasingly intense and frequent climate-related disasters, such as floods, storms, droughts and other extreme weather, killing loved ones and destroying livelihoods. Since 2000, the escalating climate crisis has also meant an eightfold increase in funding requirements for United Nations humanitarian appeals linked to extreme weather.
Today, we can predict with increasing confidence the occurrence and humanitarian impact of some of these shocks, such as droughts, floods, or storms, but also some disease outbreaks.
Taking actions based on such predictions to support vulnerable communities facing disasters aims to prevent and mitigate the effects of shocks through fast, dignified and cost-effective action that can also protect development gains.
What is anticipatory action?
Anticipatory action is acting ahead of predicted hazards to prevent or reduce acute humanitarian impacts before they fully unfold. Effective implementation of anticipatory action ideally requires three elements:
Pre-agreed trigger: This consists of thresholds and decision-making rules based on reliable, timely and measurable forecasts.
Pre-agreed activities: This consists of accountable, feasible, effective and efficient actions to be implemented to support vulnerable communities in the window of opportunity between the trigger moment and the full impact of a shock.
Pre-arranged financing: This consists of funding that is guaranteed and available to be released based on the pre-agreed trigger towards the pre-agreed activities.
OCHA underpins this approach, with a learning component to iteratively improve anticipatory action over time, but also to provide a growing evidence base that receiving assistance earlier results in significant improvements of the wellbeing of the people impacted by disasters.
OCHA is committed to use its financing tools to facilitate, generate evidence for and scale up collective anticipatory action.
OCHA supports scaling up of anticipatory action primarily through the roll-out of coordinated anticipatory action frameworks which combine pre-agreed triggers, pre-agreed activities and pre-arranged financing. The below map provides a global overview of past, ongoing and developing anticipatory action frameworks. Each OCHA-facilitated anticipatory action framework is typically endorsed for a period of 2 years, after which they may be revised or extended if necessary.
Growing evidence suggests that acting ahead of a shock has significant impact on people’s wellbeing and supports the premise of anticipatory action being fast, dignified and cost-effective action that can also protect development gain.
Collective, anticipatory approaches are still an innovative space that must be guided by iterative improvements. Thus, in addition to the three core elements, OCHA also invests in documenting evidence and learning from each framework underpinned by a clear learning, monitoring and evaluation plan.
OCHA’s Anticipatory Action learning framework includes three main learning elements:
Independent evaluation, for instance through
- A quantitative evaluation of the impact of anticipatory action on household welfare;
- A qualitative evaluation to assess beneficiary experience; and
- Forecast/trigger evaluation to assess the performance of the predictive model and ways to improve.
Process learning: Capture qualitative data on the benefits of setting up the pilot, as well as how the process supports high-quality anticipatory action frameworks and effective implementation.
Monitoring and evaluation (M&E): Coordinated, agency-specific M&E to collect and track data on implementation progress and outputs achieved with some common, coordinated questions and indicators on timing, output, reach and challenges.
Key resources
Anticipatory action: Lessons for the future, Frontiers in Climate, 2022
Centre for Disaster Protection: Five lessons on collective approaches to anticipatory action
A risk-informed Humanitarian Programme Cycle involves applying a 'risk lens' through all phases of the cycle: analysis, planning, implementation and monitoring. This includes the identification, prioritisation, monitoring and planning for the mitigation of risks based on their probability and expected humanitarian impact.
The Humanitarian Programme Cycle’s approach to risk-informed planning integrates high-impact and highly probable risks directly into humanitarian response planning. In contrast, lower probability or less predictable risks might be managed through separate contingency or preparedness plans. A combination of response preparedness/readiness, anticipatory action, and rapid response planning can typically be considered ways to mitigate the impact of priority risks.
Mainstreaming anticipatory action within the Humanitarian Programme Cycle is, therefore, one of the methods envisioned to implement risk impact mitigation for high-impact and highly probable risks within the Humanitarian Programme Cycle’s main planning document/instrument – the Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan. Anticipatory action is specifically tailored for predictable hazards, often climate hazards, enabling predefined triggers for rapid response before these risks materialize. Implementing anticipatory action requires well-established readiness and often involves agreements in advance about who will perform specific activities, where, for whom, and with what funding.
OCHA has been working with a wide range of partners to develop and implement anticipatory action frameworks.
Activities under OCHA-facilitated frameworks are implemented through continued partnership between OCHA and various national governments, UN agencies, the Red Cross family and international and national NGOs. Additionally, the collective anticipatory action approach is used to pool resources from multiple donors and partners to achieve greater scale and impact in implementation. To do this, OCHA brings together the OCHA-managed pooled funds, donors, International Financial Institutions and other anticipatory action focused funds. As a majority of anticipatory action frameworks address climate-related shocks, OCHA works closely with climate actors to enable anticipatory assistance that contributes to longer-term climate outcomes and to facilitate effective use of climate financing for reducing humanitarian impact and OCHA is committed to generating rigorous evidence on anticipatory action, and understanding what works, when and how. Strong partnerships with academic and research institutions have helped OCHA integrate robust learning and evaluation approaches into the anticipatory action frameworks.
A snapshot of our partners at the global level can be found below. Detailed country-level partners can be found under individual frameworks.
- OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN
- Early Warnings for All
- Harvard Humanitarian Initiative
- University of Oxford
- Risk Informed Early Action Partnership
- The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
- Save the Children International
- Tufts University
- UNICEF
- World Food Programme
OCHA would like to thank the following donors for their generous support to advance the work on anticipatory action:
- Australia
- Germany
- United Kingdom
- United States of America
The delivery and scaling up of anticipatory action for people at risk of imminent shocks has been made possible by donors who have continuously supported OCHA-managed Pooled Funds
General
Nepal, South Sudan and Niger Story: Anticipatory action by UN Humanitarian - Exposure
Anticipatory insurance with African Risk Capacity: A holistic benefit-cost analysis
Casement lecture update (2019)
Central Emergency Response Fund
CERF & Anticipatory Action (Nov 2021)
Anticipatory Action Task Force
Anticipatory Action Task Force key policy asks
Bangladesh
Anticipatory Action Framework: Bangladesh Cyclones - 2023
Anticipatory Action Framework: Bangladesh Floods – 2023
Summary: Bangladesh 2023 Anticipatory Action Framework – Storms
Bangladesh Floods Framework Activation – 2024
News item: UN agencies provide $6.2m to vulnerable communities as anticipatory action (July 2024)
Bangladesh 2020 Anticipatory Action Framework
Summary: Bangladesh 2020 Anticipatory Action Framework – Floods
Impact - Bangladesh 2020 anticipatory action activation
Bangladesh 2021 Anticipatory Action Framework
Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso Anticipatory Action Framework
Summary: Burkina Faso Anticipatory Action Framework
Model Report: Drought Anticipatory Action Trigger
Chad
Chad Anticipatory Action Framework for drought
Chad Anticipatory Action Framework – Floods in Chad
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Summary: DRC Anticipatory Action Framework
Ethiopia
Acting early in Ethiopia when the world isn’t watching
Ethiopia Anticipatory Action Framework
Summary: Ethiopia Anticipatory Action Framework
Predicting Drought-Related Food Insecurity
Trigger evaluation: Report by Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre (Apr 2021)
Process learning: Final report (PowerPoint form)
Impact - CERF Report on Anticipatory action against drought 2021
Ethiopia survey report by 60 Decibels
Fiji
WFP Case Study on AA and Social Protection systems: Supercharging social protection systems with anticipatory cash: Case study on Fiji’s Anticipatory Action Framework (April 2024)
Press release: United Nations and Government of Fiji Launch ground-breaking Anticipatory Action Framework for tropical cyclones
UN – Fiji Government Joint Press Release: Fiji endorses the Pacific’s first Anticipatory Action Framework for Tropical Cyclones
WFP Case-study: Supercharging social protection systems
Anticipatory Action Framework: Fiji Cyclones - 2023
Haiti
Haiti Anticipatory Action framework
Malawi
Summary: Malawi Anticipatory Action Framework
Malawi Anticipatory Action Framework
Dry spells trigger: Lessons learned
Process learning on trigger development
Trigger Quality Assurance Review
Household Survey for AA Malawi
Nepal
Nepal Anticipatory Action framework for floods: 2024
2023 Addendum to the 2022 Anticipatory Action Framework for Floods in Nepal
Monitoring report: Nepal anticipatory action 2022
Summary: Nepal 2022 Anticipatory Action Framework
Nepal Anticipatory Action Framework: 2021
UNRCO Community Perception Report
Press Release: UN Emergency Fund assists communities in Nepal before peak monsoon floods [EN/NE]
Niger
Niger Anticipatory Action Framework
Qualitative evaluation of the Anticipatory Action pilot in Niger (drought 2022-2023)
Summary: Niger Anticipatory Action Framework
Model Report: Drought Anticipatory Action Trigger
The Philippines
Anticipatory Action Framework Philippines 2024
Philippines Anticipatory Action Framework
Summary: Philippines Anticipatory Action Framework
Philippines Anticipatory Action Framework, 2023 Revision
Summary: Philippines Anticipatory Action Framework (2023 Update)
Philippines: Anticipatory Action Cash Based Intervention Snapshot (As of 03 October 2023)
Philippines CERF Anticipatory Action Cash Based Intervention Snapshot (As of 12 Sept 2022)
Philippines: AA flow of information snapshot
Philippines: CERF AA Pilot Pre-Crisis Survey (PCS) Final Report, August 2022
CERF Anticipatory Action Simulation Exercise Report
2022 After Action Review on the CERF Anticipatory Action for Typhoons
Model Report: Typhoon impact model
Somalia
Somalia Anticipatory Action Framework
Summary: Somalia Anticipatory Action Framework
South Sudan
Impacts of early action support on lives and livelihoods in South Sudan: The Life in Bentiu Study
Press Release: UN Releases $19m to Help People in South Sudan Prepare for Severe Flooding
Analysis: Flood Risk for South Sudan’s 2022 Rainy Season
CERF Early Action Implementation Monitoring Dashboard
Lessons from the 2022 South Sudan floods on acting ahead
Central America
Anticipatory Action - Dry Corridor: El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua
Anticipatory Action Framework Dry Corridor El Salvador
Anticipatory Action Framework Dry Corridor Guatemala