HUMANIFESTO – EDITION 5

Humanifesto placegolder

New York, 6 January 2025

Dear Humanitarian Community,

The context we face in 2025 is bracing. If the humanitarian movement was once an ambulance, it now finds itself called upon to be a fire engine as well, with the number of fires too great, the water insufficient, and the vehicle being vandalised.

We should not kid ourselves that this will change. So I have been thinking about three things to do better in 2025. 

First, to understand the threat we face. As I’ve been saying, the humanitarian system is overstretched, underfunded and under sustained, deliberate attack. But this is part of a broader battle for humanitarian values. 

So those hoping to defend those values should not just think about symptoms of that threat - polarisation, nationalism, conflict, poverty. But also the causes - distrust, inequality, and the pace of technological change. Are we gaining or losing trust? Are we genuinely reducing inequality, or part of a system that is allowing it to increase? Are we using the tech, or being used by it? 

Second, to be clear why we are here. For humanitarians that is to keep people alive. Being more precise and less scattered will help us to retain the hope and moral imagination to win afresh the argument for international solidarity. And to reach the new allies we will need. 

Third, to fight back. By defending what we do robustly and creatively; delivering more efficiently (see my last Humanifesto); and devolving more control and power towards those we serve. 

With that mission of saving lives, and those methods in mind, I’ve been reflecting on five questions to enhance humanitarian impact in 2025. 

  1. What is the tech innovation that will save most lives this year? 
  2. Which conflicts will the international community end this year? 
  3. How do we ensure that those we serve have more power at the end of the year than now? 
  4. What must we do less of … and more of?
  5. Who are our new allies, and how do we reach them?

And a bonus one …

  1. What will our grandchildren say about what we did this year?

Others will have different questions, and I’m sure a huge range of responses. I would love to hear your thoughts, and will aim to dig into these themes in future editions of this update. 

From my reading, watching, and listening over the break, I’ve learnt …

Climate driven migration will be a dominant theme of the coming decades. Do look out for Gaia Vince on the projections. Migration is of course the human story: our ancestors were migrants. And our descendants will be migrants. 

Today’s empires are tomorrow’s refugees. Those with too much power often learn this too late.  

People who know you well can finish your sentences. People who know you best can start them.

The most interesting trend for AI in humanitarian work will be to move from hindsight (analysing trends) to insight (using that analysis to make better decisions) to foresight. 

As Buzz Lightyear says, sometimes it is not flying, it is falling with style. 

As well as time focused on strengthening humanitarian leadership in NY and Geneva, I’m planning visits this quarter to Ukraine, Occupied Palestinian Territory, Israel, Doha, Democratic Republic of Congo, Davos, London, and Stockholm. 

All the best for 2025. Yes, we will see the worst of humanity. But we will also see the best. 

Tom