Middle East crisis deepens threat to millions of lives in Southern and Eastern Africa

By Tapiwa Gomo

“In many parts of Sudan, children’s lives are hanging by a thread, and some already dying from hunger‑related causes,” said Mohamad Abdiladif, the Country Director for Save the Children in Sudan. 

The warning comes as new analysis shows that more 17 million people in Southern and Eastern Africa could face acute levels of hunger if the escalation in the Middle East continues to destabilize the world’s economy.

According to the World Food Programme analysis, sub-Saharan countries such as Sudan and Somalia, who rely on food imports are extremely vulnerable. 

Famine has already been confirmed in parts of Sudan and remains a severe risk in South Sudan.

Nearly 36 million people in Eastern Africa are food insecure at crisis levels or worse. In Southern Africa, a further 12.2 million people face food insecurity. These conditions are particularly catastrophic for children. More than 8 million children under five and 1.3 million pregnant and breastfeeding women in Eastern Africa are acutely malnourished. 

In Southern Africa, 180,000 children face severe acute malnutrition. Malnutrition on this scale is not only a humanitarian emergency; it is a generational crisis with long‑term consequences for health, stability and development.

The region sits at the intersection of climate change, conflict and poverty, where overlapping shocks drive displacement, disrupt markets and erode fragile systems.

Already cornered

Amid helping people to respond to these shocks, severe funding cuts in the region have already forced humanitarian organizations to make extraordinarily difficult decisions, including cutting life‑saving assistance.

Abdiladif appealed, “We urgently need donor governments to step up now, to restore the lifeline before it breaks entirely, and to push for strong, sustained diplomatic pressure on parties to the conflict that protects civilians and guarantees safe, unhindered humanitarian access.”

Sudan stands at the heart of the region’s crisis accounting for nearly 10 per cent of global humanitarian needs and is the world’s largest humanitarian and displacement crisis in 2026. The ongoing conflict has uprooted 9.5 million people internally and forced 4.3 million more to flee into neighbouring states.

Climate shocks in the mix

Across the region climate extremes, protracted conflict and economic fragility are converging at an unprecedented scale. Climate crisis‑related shocks, once unpredictable, are now both foreseeable and devastating. A severe drought is threatening some parts of the Horn of Africa, while La Niña‑driven floods have devastated communities across Southern Africa. 

In Somalia, the collapse of the Shabelle River embodies this new reality. “The Shabelle River is now just a memory. My fields are dry and dusty. When it stopped flowing, we had to travel miles to buy water from trucks at high prices,” said Abdiwahid, a pastoralist whose livelihood has been upended by drought. 

In Mozambique, the impact of extreme flooding has been equally harrowing. “The water entered the house when I was already on the roof. The baby was born when the house was already flooded. I gave birth on the roof with my mother’s help,” recalled Olivia Aurelio Mbambo, who survived the country’s worst flooding in decades.

Without large‑scale investment in resilience, climate adaptation and early warning systems, each new shock will continue to deepen food insecurity, undermine livelihoods and push more communities into poverty

Deepening conflict

Conflict continues to drive record levels of displacement across the region. More than 25 million people are displaced across Eastern Africa at a profound human cost.

 “Just seven days after giving birth to my daughter, the war broke out and we were forced to flee. The journey was exhausting. We walked for long periods, day and night, and the children were extremely tired,” said Hasniya, a mother from Heglig, West Kordofan, Sudan. 

Families escaping violence often encounter hunger and disease. Displacement is becoming increasingly prolonged and dangerous, leaving families with fewer options for safety and stability.

Host countries are reaching their limits. Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Burundi continue to absorb some of the continent’s large refugee populations but need predictable international support.

Disease outbreaks

Disease outbreaks are accelerating as health systems weaken. Cholera, mpox, measles and flood‑related outbreaks are spreading at a worrying rate. In 2025, Southern and Eastern Africa accounted for more than half of global cholera cases. South Sudan recorded the highest number in the region, followed by Sudan and Angola. Communities living in overcrowded displacement sites and flood‑affected areas face the greatest risks. 

Access challenges

At the same time, humanitarian access is more constrained. Across Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia and Mozambique, conflict, insecurity and bureaucratic impediments are obstructing the delivery of life‑saving assistance. 

The convergence of restricted access, severe funding cuts and rising needs has been described by UN Under‑Secretary‑General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher as a “perfect storm” that has left humanitarian efforts “underfunded, overstretched and under attack.” In 2025, only US$3.22 billion of the $10 billion required for Southern and Eastern Africa was received. The $7 billion appeal for 2026 already reflects drastic reprioritization.

Predictable and flexible financing, sustained diplomacy, investment in resilience and climate adaptation, and scaled-up anticipatory action can prevent further deterioration. The region has the data, tools and evidence. It lacks urgency. 

Southern and Eastern Africa remain a global humanitarian hotspot not because crises are inevitable, but because known risks have not been met with sustained action. The cost of inaction will be measured in lives lost and crises that deepen over time.