Asia and the Pacific: Humanitarian Impact of the Middle East Escalation (as of 3 April 2026)

The escalation in the Middle East in late February 2026 is generating spillover effects across Asia and the Pacific, compounding humanitarian crises. The main impact stems from rising oil prices following reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply, much of it destined for Asia. Higher fuel prices are increasing transport, electricity and agricultural input costs in import-dependent countries such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and the Philippines.

Maritime war-risk insurance has risen by 25 to 50 per cent, reducing vessel traffic and further disrupting regional supply chains, including for landlocked countries such as Afghanistan. The crisis is also heightening food security risks in import-reliant countries, with price increases reported for wheat and agricultural fertilizers. Up to one third of global trade in fertilizer raw materials passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Disruptions to ammonia and nitrogen shipments are threatening food production systems dependent on fertilizer imports. Sustained increases in fuel, transport and food prices are also likely to raise the cost of humanitarian operations in Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar amid shrinking funding. Maritime uncertainty and airspace restrictions are affecting humanitarian logistics. WFP estimates that, if the crisis persists until mid-2026 and oil remains above $100 per barrel, nearly 45 million additional people could face acute food insecurity globally, including 9.1 million in Asia.