Anticipatory Action Framework: Bangladesh Cyclones - 2025 Version

Executive summary

The coordinated anticipatory action (AA) framework for cyclones in Bangladesh, initiated in January 2023 and revised in March 2025, leverages early warning systems and pre-arranged financing to mitigate humanitarian impacts of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. Building on extensive experience, including past AA efforts during monsoon floods, the framework targets interventions before predicted hazards occur. Led by the Resident Coordinator (RC), the framework is integrated with existing coordination mechanisms and aims to enhance response efficiency while protecting development gains. By targeting at-risk populations and coordinating efforts among stakeholders, this framework strengthens resilience and reduces the impact of cyclones on vulnerable communities in Bangladesh. A total of $8,026,987 ($4,000,000 from the UN Central Emergency Response Fund/CERF and $4,026,987 from BDRCS1 , BRAC, STEP, UNFPA, UNICEF, and WFP) is pre-arranged under this framework and will be disbursed for AA interventions should pre-agreed trigger thresholds specified in this framework be reached.
The framework uses scientific information on forecasts and triggers to automatically enable the implementation of a pre-agreed action plan in the target districts. A learning agenda is also part of the framework to extract key learning and enable a continuous evolution of the framework in the future.

Current structure of the framework and activation protocol

The overall structure of the framework is summarised as follows:

● During the cyclone seasons (April to June and October to November), cyclone forecasts are continuously monitored by the monitoring team for a potential activation of the framework.

● If the readiness criteria are met, the monitoring team sends a standard communication to partners.
Readiness activation can happen between 3 and 5 days before landfall.

● Upon readiness activation of the framework, CERF disburses the full amount to partners. However, partners will only be able to implement readiness activities (as specified in the CERF projects) and will have to wait for the activation of the action trigger to start the full implementation of activities as defined in Section 3. ● In case of an activation of the action trigger, the monitoring team sends a further communication to partners. ● Upon action activation of the framework partners can start implementing all activities immediately with no further approval required. ● In case of a missing readiness activation (i.e. an action trigger is reached not preceded by a readiness trigger) the disbursement of funding will happen as soon as the action trigger goes off, when implementation of activities also starts. ● An observational trigger is included to cover scenarios where a cyclone does not meet the readiness or action trigger thresholds ahead of landfall but ends up causing severe humanitarian impacts in the target districts. If the observational trigger is reached, agencies are authorised to spend 100% of the funds. The observational trigger can only be reached if the AA action trigger was not reached ahead of landfall.