Anticipatory Action - Activations in Eastern Africa: January 2024 - December 2025 (as of December 2025)

Click here to access the interactive Activations in Eastern Africa: January 2024 - December 2025

Eastern Africa AA Activation Dashboard – Six Key Messages

1. The case is proven, now it's time to scale

The evidence is clear that Anticipatory Action (AA) works: Every US$ 1 invested generates up to US$ 7 in avoided losses, and proactive drought responses in the Horn of Africa alone could have saved US$ 1.6 billion in humanitarian aid spending and US$ 2.6 billion in lost incomes and assets. Since January 2024, anticipatory action has already reached 6 million people across 10 countries in Eastern Africa, with Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan accounting for the largest share - demonstrating the reach of the approach. However, operations are yet to reach meaningful scale. With fragmented initiatives and insufficient financing still limiting impact, the region cannot afford to keep relying solely on reactive response.

2. Government ownership is the cornerstone of sustainable anticipatory action

Governments in Somalia, South Sudan, Kenya, and Uganda have already developed national anticipatory action roadmaps aligned with the IGAD Regional Roadmap for AA, and the Mombasa Declaration's 17 commitments call on all IGAD Member States to integrate anticipatory action into national frameworks, establish technical working groups, and allocate domestic budget resources. Since January 2024, 66 organizations have collectively delivered AA to 6 million people - building a strong implementation foundation that governments are increasingly positioned to lead, coordinate, and sustain as AA becomes embedded in national disaster risk management systems across the region.

3. Pre-arranged financing is the engine that makes anticipatory action possible

Without financing committed before a shock strikes, AA stalls at planning. Since January 2024, US$ 82 million has been disbursed across Eastern Africa, with CERF (US$ 33 million), Country-Based Pooled Funds (US$ 16 million), and the WFP HQ Trust Fund (US$ 8 million) as the leading streams for activation finance. Reaching the Grand Bargain Caucus target of at least 5 per cent of humanitarian funding dedicated to anticipatory action will require systematically expanding this base to include climate funds, the private sector, multilateral banks, governments, and development actors.

4. Early warning systems are the backbone - they must reach every community

Anticipatory action is only as good as the early warning information that triggers it, yet national meteorological and hydrological services across the region remain underfunded and under-resourced, particularly in conflict-affected and hard-to-reach areas. The multi-hazard reality is evident in the data: since January 2024, drought and floods account for 79 and 19 per cent of disbursed AA funds, respectively, reflecting the need for harmonized triggers, multi-season forecasting models, and innovations that are coordinated, adequately resourced, and accessible to all stakeholders.

5. Fragile and conflict-affected settings require anticipatory action the most, and it is feasible

Nearly 40 per cent of all anticipatory action activations globally in 2024 took place in fragile and conflict-affected countries, and Eastern Africa reflects this acutely, with Somalia and South Sudan among the highest-reach countries in the region's activation data. Challenges around data gaps, access, and administrative barriers remain significant, and while early experiences with local partnerships, flexible financing, open-source forecasting tools, and conflict-sensitive design are promising, continued investment and learning will be essential to operating effectively in the region's most complex settings.

6. Localization and community leadership unlock the full value of anticipatory action

Anticipatory action only delivers on its promise when it is locally owned, community-informed, and designed with, not just for, the people most at risk, as the Mombasa Declaration affirms through its explicit commitment to the meaningful participation of women, children, and those most affected. Eastern Africa has a strong foundation to build on and the growing involvement of national NGOs as the largest category of implementing organizations since January 2024, reflects encouraging momentum toward locally led, context-specific anticipatory action across the region.