Anticipatory Action Plan For Drought in Ethiopia (2020-2021)

Living document during the 2020-2021 pilot phase

version: 07 December 2020

1. Introduction

Drought in Ethiopia

Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to climate-related shocks and stresses, more frequently to seasonal droughts, erratic rainfalls and prolonged dry spells. The country’s vulnerability is caused not only by its biophysical factors – arid and semi-arid regions, waterlogging, bush fires, land erosion, deforestation, pest infestations such as the desert locust and fall armyworm – but also by its socio-economic factors, such as high population growth, rapid urbanization, dependence on agriculture, limited agriculture investment, poverty, conflict-induced spikes in internal displacement and others. Consequently, a limited climatic shock now has a greater impact on the most vulnerable households than a few years ago while at the same time extreme weather hazards are more frequent.

Ethiopia is regularly hit by droughts: Since 1953, Ethiopia has experienced droughts and floods every decade, largely due to the impact of El Niño, La Niña and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) weather events.1 Climate change and global warming have increased the frequency and the severity of these events in Ethiopia. The drought of the mid‐1980s caused many deaths with estimates ranging from half a million to over a million (Porter and Dercon 2010). In comparison the droughts in 2002 and 2011 caused many fewer deaths. In 2002 failure of rains in August and September caused an estimated 11.3 million Ethiopians to be at risk of severe food shortages and 3 million at risk of significant shortages by December (Gilligan and Hoddinott 2007). In 2011, 4.5 million Ethiopians needed food in the second half of 2011, on account of rain failures in the first half of the year (Joint Government and Humanitarian Partners’ Document 2012).

In 2015-2016, the impact of the worst El Niño in 50 years was strong in the central and northern part of the country. More than 10 million people depended on relief food assistance, household and community resilience was eroded while vulnerability increased.

This was followed in 2017 with a severe Indian Ocean dipole-induced drought in south and southeastern Ethiopia, which led to 8.5 million Ethiopians needing relief food assistance.

Droughts not only provoke food and nutrition insecurity, they also limit access to water for people and animals, increase the burden of waterborne diseases, can lead to displacements and other coping mechanisms due to increased protection risks, school dropouts, and other effects.