Anticipatory Action: Guatemala 2026 Activation

Getting ahead of drought in the Dry Corridor

Humanitarian partners FAO, PAHO, UNICEF and WFP developed this anticipatory action framework for drought in Guatemala together with the Government and with support from OCHA. The framework improves the trigger mechanism, expands the geographical scope and defines joint mechanisms for targeting, learning and AAP. The framework, approved by the Emergency Relief Coordinator in 2024 and renewed for 2026-2027, aims to reduce to reduce the potential impact of severe drought by protecting vulnerable people through collective, cross-sector anticipatory actions triggered as soon as forecasts reach the activation threshold.

The Trigger Mechanism

The mechanism has two monitoring windows, Window A (Primera season) and Window B (Postrera season), each with triggers based on seasonal rainfall forecasts aggregated across the four targeted departments. Forecasts are sourced from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF SEAS5), with OCHA's Center for Humanitarian Data monitoring trigger status and issuing monthly updates on the 5th of each month. Thresholds are calibrated to an overall combined annual return period of 1 in 3 years (1 in 2.92).