Madagascar - Advocacy Note (October 2025)

SITUATION OVERVIEW

• Convergence of shocks is worsening the humanitarian situation in Madagascar. In the Grand Sud and parts of the Grand Sud-Est, 22 districts are facing a new and worsening humanitarian crisis driven by consecutive shocks: a prolonged Oct–Dec 2024 drought exacerbated by El Niño; severe flooding from multiple cyclones—especially Tropical Cyclone Honde and Storm Jude in March 2025; and migratory and red locust infestations (Feb to May 2025) that destroyed key crops, threatening food security in IPC-affected areas of the Grand Sud. In the Grand Sud-Est, an early-season drought was followed by a major malaria outbreak since April 2025, further straining an already fragile health system. Even before this escalation, both areas had faced a protracted humanitarian crisis due to recurrent droughts and cyclones (Grand Sud since 2020, Grand Sud-Est since 2022), leaving communities with little time or resources to recover.

• Hunger is set to deteriorate. Madagascar’s hunger crisis will likely worsen, with 29,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) in the Grand Sud, a number projected to nearly quadruple to 110,000 by January 2026, compared to the same period in 2024, when no areas were classified at this level of severity. Seven of 11 districts are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) even during the post-harvest period, levels normally seen only in themlean season. Madagascar already has an "alarming" hunger situation according to the 2024 Global Hunger Index which places the country 124th out of 127 nations, highlighting a severe food and nutrition insecurity crisis

• Malnutrition has reached crisis levels across Madagascar’s Grand Sud. Five districts have already crossed the emergency threshold for Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM >2%), with several more in Crisis Phase. Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) cases have increased by 87 per cent in one year, reaching 155,600 children. Moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) cases are also up 46 per cent, rising from 274,500 to 402,400. SAM admissions have doubled, signaling a worsening nutrition crisis. In critical hotspots such as Ikongo and Amboasary-Atsimo, Global Acute Malnutrition rates are just under 15 per cent—the emergency threshold— placing thousands of children aged 6–59 months in life-threatening danger.

• Disease outbreaks are compounding malnutrition crisis. In the Grand Sud-Est, communities weakened by years of shocks and hardship are facing surges in diarrhoeal diseases and vector-borne illnesses such as malaria. Flooding from successive cyclones, damaged health facilities, and poor access to clean water have fueled transmission. Malaria has reached crisis levels in Ikongo District, with over 45,200 confirmed cases reported by week 30 of 2025, representing nearly a quarter of national malaria-related cases—and is further driving acute malnutrition to emergency levels.

• Funding cuts are crippling life-saving response. Sharp reductions have severely undermined partners’ ability to respond, with approximately US$96 million in anticipated 2025 funding suspended or redirected in early 2025 (source: inter-sector data collection conducted in April 2025). This directly affects lifesaving and resilience programmes. Fifteen international NGO field offices have closed—mostly in high-need districts—further shrinking coverage.

• Government and partners are developing a national Humanitarian Response Plan. The Government of Madagascar, through the National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC) and with support from humanitarian partners, is developing a national Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) for August 2025–April 2026. The plan, aligned with the Nexus Common Results, will address escalating food insecurity, acute malnutrition and the malaria outbreak in the Grand Sud and Grand Sud-Est, and will activate IPC-based anticipatory action that complements existing single-hazard (drought/cyclone) anticipatory initiatives implemented by agencies and organizations.

• Lastly, the GBV situation in Madagascar in 2025 remains critical. Recent studies such as those conducted by the World Bank in July 2025 indicate that the prevalence of gender-based violence (GBV) is high, particularly in the Southern of Madagascar, due to a combined factors like successive droughts and cyclones, which have increased inequalities and risk of GBV.