Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi - Flash Update No. 1 (11 January 2025)
Highlights
- Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is expected to make a landfall in Vohémar and Antsiranana districts in northern Madagascar on 11 January.
- Heavy rainfall has already started in the north and is expected to continue between 11 and 13 January.
- Projections indicate that at least 45,000 people are expected to be directly affected, according to the National Risk Atlas and the National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC).
- Humanitarian partners have reinforced preparedness measures by providing emergency stocks and mobilizing additional assistance.
- In Mozambique, awareness-raising activities have already commenced.
SITUATION OVERVIEW
At 10:00 a.m. local time, tropical cyclone Dikeledi was located 152 km east of Vohemar, with winds of 120 km/h and moving at 21 km/h. The landfall was expected today in Vohemar and Antsiranana cities. The average wind is estimated at 120 kilometers per hour (km/h) with 170 km/h gust near its center. It is moving west-northwest at a speed of 21 km/h, according to Météo Madagascar. Heavy rainfall is expected in northern Madagascar between 11 and 13 January and may cause flooding and landslides.
Meanwhile, the rains have started in the north and the National Meteorological Service forecasts indicate that Antsiranana will receive up to 170 mm of rain today. However, a comparison of rainfall shows that the expected rainfall from Dikeledi is much less than that of Tropical Cyclone Gamane, which affected the same area in April 2024. According to data from the National Risk Atlas and the National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC), TC Dikeledi's passage is expected to directly affect at least 45,082 people (Analanjirofo-2673, Betsiboka-2265, Boeny-6162, Diana-7418, Melaky-2960, Menabe-1629, Sava-16,623 and Sofia-5352).
Cyclone warnings have been activated in Sava and Diana, which have been put under red alert. Bealanana, Antsohihy, and Analalava districts are on yellow alert, while Ambatosoa commune and Boeny region, Befandriana Avaratra, Mandritsara, Mampikony, and Boriziny districts have been placed on green alert.
Projections indicate that TC Dikeledi may reach the Mozambican channel on 12 January. Heavy rainfall causing flash floods and localized floods, strong winds and associated rough sea conditions is expected in the Comoros and Mozambique according to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Humanitarian and Emergency Operations Centre.
EMERGENCY RESPONSE
Preparedness and response efforts are ongoing, including the dissemination of early warning information to at-risk communities. Emergency stocks which were mobilized during Cyclone Chido in December 2024 have been provided for response. Cash assistance has been provided to 9,000 households. Partners are sending 350 tons of food by boat. BNGRC pre-deployed two teams in the north to support Anticipatory Action, local coordination, and possible evacuation. The National Emergency Operations Coordination Center (CNCOU) has been activated. All sectors have been activated, both at the national level and in the north, to start anticipatory actions on alert and awareness messaging as well as prepare for the mobilization of stocks. Education emergency protocols have also been activated and pre-positioned education stocks such as temporary classrooms and school kits are available in Diana, Boeny, Sava, Analanjirofo and Antsinanana regions in addition to hand washing devices, school kits, temporary learning space, school reinforcement kits, teacher kits. Non-food items kits and teams are ready to be deployed. Health partners, the Department of Emergency and Response to Epidemics and Disasters (SURECA) is supporting the pre-positioning of medical supplies. They will also support the pre-positioning of dignity and reproductive health kits in Sava region. Water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) partners have provided WASH kits in high-risk areas, but the supplies are inadequate. Protection activities are ongoing including awareness raising and dissemination of information. While shelter partners have prepared temporary sites, most people prefer to move in with their families and relatives. Food security and livelihoods partners have provided 70 tons of rice seeds and other crops and 18 tons of bean seeds in Vohémar which are being distributed. Access by road to the north remains a challenge as the national road connecting with the Capital City, was severely damaged by the previous Tropical Cyclone Gamane in 2024 and has not been adequately repaired. Since December, this road was cut-off several times just after rainfall. Reaching Nosy Be district, a very small Island in the north.
Meanwhile in Mozambique, on 10 January, authorities started raising awareness of the TC Dikeledi with projections that the cyclone may reach the Mozambican channel on 12 January. Meteo-France indicates that the passage may occur on 13 January. However, it does not yet pose danger to the coastal or mainland area.