Southern Africa: Tropical Cyclone Chido - Flash Update No. 1, As of 13 December 2024

HIGHLIGHTS

• Close to 2.7 million people are estimated to be affected by the passage of the Tropical Cyclone Chido in six countries in the region, including the Comoros, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Seychelles and Mozambique.
• Other countries in the region are expected to receive heavy rainfall associated with this system include Zimbabwe and Zambia. Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Eswatini, southern parts of Tanzania and north-western parts of South Africa are also expected to receive heavy rainfall due to other weather systems within the period.
• Preparedness efforts are ongoing, including the dissemination of advisories to at-risk communities and the repositioning of humanitarian supplies, preventive evacuation and pre-deployment of staff to support the local coordination.

SITUATION OVERVIEW

About 2.7 million people in six countries in southern Africa including the Comoros (368,508), Madagascar (135,838), Malawi (440,479), Mauritius (225), Mozambique (1,753,234) and Seychelles (16) are projected to be affected by the passage of the intense tropical cyclone Chido, according to the Automated Disaster Analysis and Mapping (Adam) by WFP.

Between 7 and 8 December, Tropical depression Chido developed in the south-eastern Indian Ocean Basin, progressing westward. On 10 December, Chido strengthened reaching the stage of Tropical Cyclone Category 4 (severe typhoon category) but weakened again to Category 3 on 13 December. Over the next 36 hours, Chido is expected to maintain a significant intensity (tropical cyclone or intense tropical cyclone) on a west-southwest trajectory. It should pass close to the north of Madagascar, then near Glorioso, Mayotte and the Comoros archipelago. On 15 December, Chido could intensify again before landing in northern Mozambique (Cabo Delgado or Nampula provinces).

In the morning of 13 December, Chido was located 159 km from the north of Madagascar, north-east of Antsiranana Province. Storms and heavy rains are forecast to affect Diana Region and the districts of Vohemar, Bealanana, Antsohihy, Analalava, Sambava and Andapa. Wave heights are estimated to be 4 to 8 metres along the north-east and north-west coasts during its passage. This could cause sea levels to rise in areas prone to flooding. The users of the sea between Mahajanga and Cap d'Ambre, and Cap d'Ambre and Cap Est are requested to stop sailing from13 December. In the Comoros, particularly Anjouan and Moheli, heavy rains are expected on 14 December.

In Mozambique, Chido will make landfall in Pemba (Cabo Delgado) on 15 December as an Intense Tropical Cyclone. With heavy rains of up to 200 mm in 24 hours and winds of up 120 km/h, Cyclone Chido has a similar intensity to Cyclones Gombe (2022) and Freddy (2023). Some 1.7 million people are exposed, including one million people in Cabo Delgado at risk of winds exceeding 120 km/h.

Moreover, there is over 60 per cent likelihood that the remnants of the cyclone could reach Malawi, bringing significant rainfall to the country through 16 December, potentially leading to flash flooding.

Other parts of the Southern Africa Region are also expected to receive heavy rainfall associated with this system including Zimbabwe and Zambia. On the other hand, Angola, Botswana, DRC, Eswatini, southern parts of Tanzania and Northern Western parts of South Africa are also expected to receive heavy rainfall due to other weather systems within the period.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

Preparedness efforts are ongoing, including the dissemination of advisories to at-risk communities and the repositioning of humanitarian supplies, preventive evacuation and pre-deployment of staff to support coordination. Alerts were activated in the areas to be affected. Advisories on preparedness and mitigation measures for Southern African Development Community (SADC) member states were issued on 12 December. This includes monitoring official weather updates and bulletins from their relevant authorities, conducting public awareness campaigns for communities at risk, reinforcing shelters and critical facilities, reinforcing emergency communication protocols to ensure efficient information flow during critical times, activating evacuation plans, ensuring efficient and safe evacuation procedures are in place and prepositioning emergency supplies.

OCHA has facilitated activation of the International Space Charter by the UN Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR) to provide geospatial analysis of the cyclone impacts in the affected countries and the UN Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) system is on standby in anticipation of possible deployment upon request from the affected countries.

In Madagascar, partners indicate that although damages will be limited, due to the characteristics of the cyclone and the capacity of the area expected to be affected, access to the north remains a major challenge as national roads are still damaged from previous cyclones. Despite these challenges, the National Office for Risk and Catastrophe Management (BNGRC) has deployed food stocks in the north, in addition to the stocks already available through partners. The UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) is planning to mobilize a UN Humanitarian Air Service (UNHAS) flight to preposition items in the north where stock levels are relatively low. UNOCHA, in support of BNGRC, is conducting a refresher training on aerial and rapid multi-sector needs assessment for about 40 inter-agency teams, which can be mobilized at any time if a post-cyclone assessment is needed. Madagascar Red Cross branches have been alerted, disaster response teams have been identified and early warning system (EWS) equipment is being deployed. Humanitarian partners continue to monitor the situation to assess required support. Three teams of BNGRC have been deployed to Diego, Vohemar and Ambilobe cities to support the anticipatory actions conducted at the local level including the preventive evacuation. The Red Cross movement is carrying out awareness-raising campaigns in Diana, Sava and Sofia through its crisis modifier window.

In the Comoros, the Comorian Red Cross is working on an inventory of available resources and the activation of crisis cells. Community awareness campaigns are also scheduled.

In Mozambique, the Emergency Preparedness Response Plan has been finalized and will be activated as required. The National Institute for Disaster Management (INGD) is prepositioning stocks and assets while coordinating deployment of staff to vulnerable areas. INGD has also prepared a list of accommodation centres for individuals affected by the cyclone. Humanitarian partners are prepositioning stocks in strategic areas and pre-deploying emergency staff. Notifications are being disseminated through SMS, radio, television, and other channels.

In Malawi, an advisory was shared by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Climate Change for people to move to higher grounds immediately and follow evacuation orders when issued, examine buildings to ensure they can withstand the strong winds, ensure that drainages and waterways are free of obstructions. On 13 December, the Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DoDMA) convened government and humanitarian partners to discuss a potential response. During the meeting, DoDMA confirmed that a centralised Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) will be set up in one of the southern districts, with the exact location of the EOC to be confirmed before Saturday 14 December. In addition, district councils have been urged to set up district level EOCs.