Southern Africa: Tropical Cyclone Jude Flash Update No. 1 (as of 11 March 2025)

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Following the passage of Moderate Tropical Storm Jude in Madagascar on 8 March, at least one person was killed, one injured and 4,100 people affected, including 3,617 displaced in 9 temporary sites, mainly in Maroantsetra District in the north. In addition, approximately 1,300 houses have been flooded, with 37 destroyed, while about 37 classrooms have been submerged and 3 others destroyed.
  • On 10 March, Jude intensified into a Tropical Cyclone and made landfall in Mossuril District, Nampula Province, in the north of Mozambique. The province is currently experiencing heavy rain, destructive winds and dangerous seas.
  • In Malawi, the Government has issued a Tropical Storm Warning, with initial impacts expected on 10 March. OCHA is supporting the humanitarian community in Malawi to coordinate early action, preparedness and response.
  • Response and preparedness measures are underway in Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique. Additionally, US$6 million in pre-arranged funding from the Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) has been released for Mozambique after the trigger thresholds for the Anticipatory Action and Early Response framework for cyclones were met.

SITUATION OVERVIEW

On 6 March, a weather system began forming south-west of Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean, moving westward. Following its passage in Madagascar on 8 March, at least 4,100 people were affected in 8 districts across 5 regions, including one person killed, one injured, and 3,617 displaced, mainly in Maroantsetra District, in the north. The displaced are hosted across nine temporary sites. Also, more than 1,300 houses were flooded, including 37 damaged, and 37 classrooms were submerged and 3 others destroyed. On 8 March, the storm entered the Mozambique Channel from northern Madagascar, heading westward and passing south of Mayotte and the Comoros before turning south-west toward Mozambique.

By 9 March, now officially named Tropical Storm Jude, the system tracked west-southwest and made a landfall in Mossuril District, Nampula Province, in the north of Mozambique, during the early hours of 10 March. Madagascar remains on high alert as the storm is projected to head south-west from Mozambique and make landfall there between 13 and 14 March.

In Mozambique, initial reports indicated that Nampula Province was experiencing heavy rains, destructive winds and dangerous seas on 10 March. The neighbouring provinces of Cabo Delgado, Niassa and Zambezia were also affected to a lesser extent with expected heavy rains. These worsening conditions could persist until mid-week, impacting northern Mozambique and Malawi. According to the National Disaster Response Agency (INGD), approximately 780,000 people in Nampula and Zambezia are in the cyclone’s path and are likely to be affected.

In Malawi, the Government has issued a Tropical Storm Warning, with initial impacts expected on 10 March. On 9 March, Malawi Government’s Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) confirmed the peer-developed flood trigger for early action after the threshold was reached. Schools in the area likely to be affected have been suspended between 10 and 13 March. The likely effects of the cyclone include heavy rains and storms that are expected to reach more than 200 mm on 10 March in all southern region districts, including Salima, Ntcheu, Dedza and Lilongwe in the central region. Some southern region districts were already experiencing rains ranging from light to moderate levels by 10 March.

Over the next few days, Jude is expected to weaken as it travels near the Mozambique-Malawi border. The system is expected to emerge over the Mozambique Channel on 12 or 13 March. It could then experience a new phase of intensification, heading towards the south-west of Madagascar and make landfall there between 13 and 14 March. Humanitarian partners in Madagascar remain on high alert.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

Humanitarian partners are supporting the government-led response across the three affected countries. On 9 March, Malawi Government’s Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) confirmed the peer-developed flood trigger for early action after the threshold was reached. As a result, some partners have activated anticipatory action programmes. Evacuation, search and rescue plans, and logistical arrangements have been activated. All humanitarian clusters have been activated, and an Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) is being established in Blantyre from 10 to 13 March, with a review planned after landfall. OCHA and other partners in country have been deployed to support activation of the EOC. Awareness campaigns are being intensified in high-risk districts while cash assistance and other early actions are ongoing. Humanitarian partners have provided two boats for rescue operations in Bangula and fuel support, while emergency food supplies are pre-positioned in Liwonde, Blantyre, Bangula, Ntcheu and Phalombe for immediate distribution. The Malawi Red Cross Society is supporting awareness efforts, with first aid teams activated in at-risk areas, particularly in all southern region districts, as well as Ntcheu, Salima and Dedza districts in the central region.

In Madagascar, as response efforts to Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi, which struck the same areas a month ago, are still ongoing, partners are simultaneously addressing the additional damage caused by Jude. In addition, the cyclone is expected to make a second landfall between 13 and 14 March potentially as a severe tropical storm. OCHA is supporting coordination with partners to activate preparedness activities. Madagascar has aerial assessment capacity via aircraft and inter-agency multi-sectoral teams, with contingency measures already in place. However, stocks are almost depleted due to the consecutive responses to four severe climate events since January. This includes Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi in the north, floods in the capital, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and Tropical Cyclone Honde in the south-west. Additional resources will be needed if Jude makes a second landfall, even as a tropical storm, as the south-western regions remain highly fragile following the two most recent climate events.

In Mozambique, trigger thresholds for the Anticipatory Action and Early Response framework for cyclones were reached, prompting an immediate allocation of up to $6 million in pre-arranged funding from CERF. Facilitated by OCHA in collaboration with the national technical working group on anticipatory action led by the Government of Mozambique, the CERF-supported collective framework assists vulnerable communities in the six coastal provinces of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, Zambezia, Sofala, Inhambane and Gaza before, during, and immediately after a cyclone. In addition, OCHA staff have been deployed to Nampula to support provincial-level coordination, work with partners to review available stocks and map areas that are likely to be hard-to-reach due to flooding.

Jude comes at a time when communities affected by recent cyclones are yet to recover. Humanitarian response capacities, mainly in Madagascar and Malawi, are overstretched and additional resources will be required to replenish depleted stocks.