Impact of the deteriorating security situation in Mali on border areas: Mauritania - Senegal - Guinea (GRANIT) (as of 31 October 2025)

Key information on the evolving context

The security situation in southwestern Mali (Kayes, Koulikoro, and Sikasso regions) deteriorated sharply during the period following an offensive by the main non-state armed group (NSAG) operating in the area. This adds to an already fragile security context in the northern and central regions of the country. In October, the number of violent incidents in Mali reached the highest level ever recorded. The offensive was accompanied by declared blockades on fuel and a major transport company, affecting vital routes linking Bamako and other urban centers to the rest of the region, with significant consequences for supply chains and the prices of essential goods.

This deterioration has also brought NSAGs closer to the porous border areas with Mauritania, Senegal, and Guinea, as well as to strategic mining resources that straddle these borders. These resources could become a major source of financing for NSAGs and potentially facilitate their gradual infiltration into neighboring countries. However, despite the increased risk, no major spillover effects were observed or expected in the short term, due to strengthened border security measures, strong social cohesion, and ongoing vulnerability-reduction activities.

Forced displacement from Mali to Mauritania rose sharply during the period as a result of the deteriorating security situation, with continued increases expected (an estimated 318,000 refugees projected by the end of 2025). The situation has also prompted longterm Mauritanian refugees in Mali to return to Mauritania, mainly to the Guidimakha region. Refugees have continued to concentrate in Hodh Ech Chargui, creating severe demographic pressure in an already highly vulnerable area, although increasing numbers are now arriving in other southern regions of Mauritania as well. Basic services (health, education, water, etc.) were overstretched, and growing needs exceeded response capacities. Priority needs identified included access to water, food, and health services. Smallscale, anecdotal cross-border displacement of Malians into Senegal was reported, while no movements toward Guinea were observed.

Mali’s August ban on cross-border transhumance from Mauritania for security reasons, combined with the continuous arrival of Malian pastoralist refugees with their livestock, led to a high concentration of animals in southern Mauritania and reduced access to pastoral resources. Despite the increased risk of resource-related conflict, no significant incidents were recorded during the period. The large-scale movement of refugees and livestock, coupled with limited access to water, hygiene, and sanitation, created a high public health risk. This contributed to the spread of a major Rift Valley Fever (RVF) outbreak in Mauritania (also affecting Senegal), causing several dozen human deaths and several hundred animal deaths between September and October, and posing a significant threat to pastoral livelihoods.