Mozambique - El Niño-induced drought - Flash Update No. 1 (As of 08 November 2024) [EN/PT]
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HIGHLIGHTS
• As of August 2024, some 1.8 million people were estimated to be in IPC3+ (including 510,000 in IPC4), as a result of the drought. A third of the population in affected areas in crisis or emergency food insecurity phase.
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through March 2025, particularly in the central region, until the next harvest season in April-May. Weak and short La Niña event developing from November to January, with a potential for higher frequency and intensity of rains and cyclones.
• The Government of Mozambique has been implementing anticipatory actions in nine districts and is planning to reach a total of 145,426 people with food for two months starting in November.
• In August 2024, a drought appeal was launched seeking US$222 million to provide life-saving, life-supporting assistance and protection services. So far only $110,000, or 0.1 percent, has been received in contributions.
• CERF allocated $7,000,000 to kickstart response in the four districts most severely impacted by the drought. An additional envelope of $1,150,000 was allocated to implement climate-smart and resilience-building initiatives.
• Humanitarian partners are ramping up the response in the most impacted provinces to complement government’s efforts.
SITUATION OVERVIEW
Rainfall shortages and above-average temperatures during the 2023-2024 planting season, exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon, has resulted in more than 1.8 million people facing severe food insecurity between April and September 2024 (IPC3+), including 510,000 in IPC4 (emergency level). Some drought-affected districts are still struggle to recover from the impact of past climatic shocks.
According to Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET), crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through March 2025, particularly in the central region, until the next harvest season in April-May. Staple food prices usually reach their peak during the lean season, and this year they are above average, making it even more difficult for families, particularly the poor and very poor, to access food from markets. There are an estimated 73.4 percent living in poverty in Mozambique. With the start of harvests in April and May 2025, however improvement in food access is expected, leading to a reduction in acute food insecurity levels to minimal (IPC Phase 1) or stressed (IPC Phase 2). The areas of highest concern include the semi-arid areas in the country's central region, remote areas with limited access to markets, and the conflict-affected areas in the southeast of Cabo Delgado.
The impact of the lean season includes the rapid depletion of below-average food stocks for families who were able to harvest some of their own crops. For rural families headed by women this leads to greater food insecurity and lower access to income to address basic needs.
Crop production loss accounted for 19 percent of the overall production estimate of 3,861,030 tonnes, according to impact assessment conducted by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, and the Mozambique Vulnerability Assessment Committee in September 2024. Among the crops damaged, maize – the most important staple food crop – was the most affected in terms of area and production volume. Nearly 720,000 tonnes of maize production – mainly cereals – were lost, or about $349 million or 7 percent of the agriculture sector GDP. Approximately $16,000 in livestock damages resulting from the death of livestock was reported in Manica and Maputo provinces.
The subsequent livestock production losses and anticipated future loss of offspring from the dead female animals and the reduced production of the surviving animals are estimated at about $12.4 million. The substantial loss of maize is predicted to decrease the national supply, increasing the need to import staple foods to meet domestic demand and exert upward pressure on domestic food prices. Parts of the country recorded an increase of maize grain prices of up to 50 percent between May and July 2024, according to FEWS NET.
With a potential La Niña effect from November 2024 to January 2025, the frequency and intensity of heavy rains and tropical cyclones is expected to increase in the Indian Ocean and floods are expected in areas currently affected by drought. In 2008, Mozambique was hit by a record number of cyclones as a result of to La Niña conditions.
In August 2024, the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT), in coordination with the National Institute for Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (INGD), launched a drought appeal seeking $222 million to provide life-saving, life-supporting assistance and protection to a total of 1.4 million affected people affected by the drought in the country. The appeal covering 12 months outlines a coordinated response to deliver essential humanitarian support in the most severely impacted areas, including food, nutrition, water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH), as well as protection services. This initiative aims to bolster local capacities and complement the efforts of the Government of Mozambique in addressing the pressing needs of the most vulnerable populations. According to FTS, as of 7 November, only 0.1% ($110K) of the appeal has been funded, highlighting a significant funding gap in addressing the ongoing crisis.
The Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) recently allocated $7,000,000 to kickstart life-saving activities in the four districts most severely impacted by the drought, namely Guro, Macossa, Tambara (Manica province) and Maringue (Sofala province). Moreover, an additional envelope of $1,150,000 was allocated to implement climate-smart initiatives aimed at supporting the resilience of the affected populations. The allocation specifically targets the needs of women, children, elderly, and people with disabilities. The activities will prevent further deterioration of people’s wellbeing and livelihoods, by focusing on urgent needs across food security and livelihood, water, sanitation and hygiene, health (including sexual reproductive health) and nutrition.