Nigeria: BAY States Humanitarian Response Comparative Impact Analysis - Q1 2024 vs Q1 2025

Overview

Between the first quarter of 2024 and 2025, there was a marked reduction in the scale of humanitarian response across the three BAY states—Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe. The total number of individuals reached decreased by 43.9%, highlighting a significant contraction in operational footprint. This decline reflects the reduced capacity of humanitarian actors to meet the needs of vulnerable populations, largely driven by constrained funding and evolving priorities. The impact was most pronounced in Adamawa State, where the number of people reached dropped by 66.8%. Yobe followed with a 54.7% decline, while Borno, though showing a smaller percentage drop, still experienced a significant reduction in absolute terms. These reductions imply a geographic re-focusing of activities, possibly driven by security concerns, logistical feasibility, and cost-effectiveness under reduced budgets. When disaggregated by population group, the data shows that returnees and host communities bore the brunt of the reductions. Returnees saw a dramatic 68.8% decrease in reach, underscoring the vulnerability of people in early recovery stages and the shrinking attention to reintegration programming. Host communities followed with a 49.7% drop, suggesting that community resilience-building activities may have been scaled down. In contrast, IDPs were relatively prioritized but still experienced a 21.1% reduction. The findings point clearly to the impact of funding cuts—where life-saving assistance for displaced populations has taken precedence, while long-term, sustainable support for returnees and host communities has been deprioritized. This shift could undermine recovery efforts, potentially triggering secondary displacement or deepening community vulnerabilities. There is a critical need to mobilize additional funding to restore a balanced humanitarian response and avoid reversing the progress made in early recovery and stabilization in the region.