Somalia Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan 2026

Somalia faces an intensifying humanitarian crisis driven by prolonged drought, conflict, and recurrent disease outbreaks.

A multi-stakeholder shock analysis conducted in 2025 estimated that 7.5 million people—representing 39 percent of the population—were affected across 64 of 90 districts. While this figure reflects a reduction compared to previous years, the decline is attributable to stricter scope-setting rather than improved conditions. The situation has worsened following the failure of the 2025 Karan rains (July–September) in the north and the Deyr (Oct-Dec) rains nationwide. Northern regions have now endured a fourth consecutive failed rainy season, with rainfall levels 60 percent below average—the driest conditions recorded since 1981. Extreme heat (35–40 °C) accelerates water loss, leaving rangelands parched and water points depleted.2 Widespread water infrastructure failures have driven water prices in Puntland to $12–15 per 200-liter barrel. 80 per cent of berkads in Puntland have dried up, in Hirshabelle, 50 boreholes require urgent rehabilitation; These disruptions are significantly inflating water costs and compounding public health risks. Crop failure affects up to 85 per cent of farmland, reducing sorghum and maize yields by 20–30 per cent.3 The combined effects of severe drought, ongoing conflict, and soaring food prices—including imported cereals and water— have pushed Somalia’s food insecurity to crisis levels. Livestock deaths and widespread pastoral movements underscore the collapse of traditional livelihoods and deepening vulnerability Between October and December 2025, 4.4 million people (23 per cent of the population) faced IPC Phase 3+ food insecurity, including 921,000 in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).4 Malnutrition rates are surging, with 1.85 million children under 5 projected to suffer acute malnutrition, including 421,000 severe cases projected from August 2025-July 2026.5 These conditions are expected to worsen as drought persists, with households in Emergency (IPC 4) expected to rise through May.

Somalia’s fragile health system is under immense strain as poor access to safe water and drought-driven displacement have triggered an upsurge of vaccine-preventable diseases, AWD/cholera and other disease outbreaks, affecting the country’s high number of 'zero-dose' children. The health system’s capacity to respond is severely hindered by chronic underfunding and logistical disruptions, leaving critical gaps in facility-based care. The combined impact of restricted access to healthcare and the rising disease burden poses an immediate threat to life, particularly for malnourished children and pregnant women in the most severely affected inter-sectoral priority areas. In addition, given that Ethiopia has declared the Marburg Virus Disease (MVD), the situation becomes concerning for the neighbouring countries including Somalia. By November (Epi-weeks 1 – 49) 2025, the country recorded 3,375 diphtheria cases and 139 associated deaths, 11, 599 measles cases, 11,952 malaria cases and 8,846 cases of AWD/ cholera. Conflict remains a critical driver of humanitarian needs in Somalia, with inter-clan fighting, retaliatory attacks, and military offensives—particularly in partners’ operations by 70 per cent, forcing them to lower cash transfer values to cover only 70 per cent of the food Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB) and shorten assistance duration from six to three months. Consequently, more than 600,000 vulnerable people are now without food or cash support. Without urgent funding, reductions in food, health, and WASH assistance will deepen vulnerabilities. Pipeline disruptions in food and nutrition supplies, including Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF) and Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food (RUSF), as well as interruptions in cash assistance programs, are anticipated to further exacerbate the food security crisis as the drought intensifies.

The crisis is further compounded by high access constraints, with 139 incidents reported between January and September 2025, including interference in aid delivery and violence against personnel. Severe restrictions persist along the Shabelle River corridor, Hiraan, and Galgaduud, with significant limitations in Bay,
Bakool, and Lower Juba—many priority areas for the 2026 HNRP.

Unpredictable movement due to checkpoints, ambushes, IEDs, and hostilities, compounded by infrastructure damage, informal taxation, and inconsistent travel permissions, has increased costs and delayed aid. Security incidents, reduced funding, and the AUSSOM transition heighten risk aversion, underscoring the need for acceptance-based access strategies and principled use of armed escorts.