Somalia Monthly Humanitarian Update, October 2024

This report is produced by OCHA Somalia in collaboration with humanitarian partners. It provides information on the humanitarian situation across Somalia in October 2024

HIGHLIGHTS

  • About 5.98 million people are projected to require assistance in 2025, down 13 per cent from 6.9 million in 2024. Partners will target 4.6 million people; an 11 per cent decrease from the 2024 target of 5.2 million people.
  • Many areas of Somalia have not received the anticipated October-December rains, exacerbating fears of projected La Niña-induced dry conditions. Below-average rains will aggravate food insecurity and exacerbate drinking water scarcity.
  • The Somalia Inter-Cluster Coordination Group has developed a preparedness and anticipatory plan to mitigate the impact of projected below-average rainfall and La Nina conditions and to prevent displacement and associated protection risks.
  • Inter-clan violence is reported in northern, central and southern Somalia, primarily driven by disputes over grazing land. The violence has displaced thousands of people and significantly disrupted livelihoods in affected areas.
  • Story: Read how humanitarian intervention changes people’s lives. Fadumo and her family can now have two meals a day.

KEY FIGURES

5.98M People projected to need humanitarian assistance in 2025.

4.6M People which partners will target to assist in 2025.

40% Percentage funding received for the 2024 response plan.

US$5M CERF funds allocated for early action for drought, targeting 130K people.

103K People displaced by conflict from Jan to Sept across Somalia

Projections show 5.98 million people will need assistance in Somalia in 2025

The Somalia humanitarian crisis is among the world's most complex, marked by cycles of internal conflict and climate shocks that drive displacement and undermine development efforts. Climate change exacerbates vulnerability, with altered rainfall patterns leading to both droughts and floods. According to the 2025 Humanitarian Programme Cycle (HPC) projections, an estimated 5.98 million people will require humanitarian and protection assistance in Somalia in 2025, down 13 per cent from 6.9 million in 2024 but still a persistently high level of needs. This reduction reflects a stricter scopesetting approach, identifying people affected by shocks that drive humanitarian needs.

Accordingly, 9.1 million people, or 47 per cent of Somalia’s population, are impacted by multiple shocks, including floods, drought, disease outbreaks and displacements. Of the 5.9 million people in need of assistance in 2025, humanitarian partners will target 4.6 million; an 11 per cent decrease from 5.2 million people targeted for assistance in 2024. Humanitarians plan to expand the integrated response framework and area-based coordination mechanisms to decentralize coordination and bring the response closer to affected population.

The HPC projections come amid a grim outlook for the rest of 2024. With a 70 per cent likelihood of La Nina conditions during the last quarter of 2024 to early 2025, anticipated below-average rains in late 2024 will aggravate food insecurity. The situation will also exacerbate drinking water scarcity for approximately 300,000 people in 10 districts in central and southern states. Moreover, acute food insecurity remains high with at least 4.4 million people facing high levels of acute food insecurity as drought conditions loom and 1.6 million children likely to suffer from acute malnutrition in the next 12 months, including 402,000 who are likely to suffer from Severe Acute Malnutrition. The situation is compounded by widespread violence and insecurity that affects some 4.5 million people in 20 districts and poses significant challenges to humanitarian access.

The situation is more concerning because with the year ending, Somalia has received only 40 per cent of humanitarian contributions against the US$1.59 billion needed for the response in 2024. Until the end of the year, humanitarian partners are likely to reach only about half of the 5.2 million people targeted for assistance. More people will be reached if additional resources become available.